FTSE 100 Soothsaying

It is always a lottery forecasting how the FTSE 100 is going to perform, after all who predicted it’s stellar performance of nearly 13% in the 6 months after  the Brexit vote in June 2016 when most were forecasting armageddon? You would have been carried away in a straight-jacket!

So how did the soothsayers do in 2017? The index started the year just above 7,100 closing on 29th December at 7,687, a rise of over 8%. According to a poll of fund managers by the Association of Investment Companies, the consensus view  (over one-third) thought that the index would close between 7,000-7,500, a quarter predicted within the 6,500-7,000 range and an incredible 8% put their collective fingers in the air tipping a closing index of below 4,000, at around the 2008 financial crisis level! Citibank for the record seemed to be closest at 7,600.

As for 2018, who knows? I think I will contact the newly knighted Sir John Curtice, the election voting guru. Surely he will have a better idea than most fund managers!